Weather & Drought | Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch

What is Drought?

For ranchers in the United States, drought can be defined as too little soil water to meet the needs of dominant forage species during their rapid growth windows.

A “dry” year may be a considered a drought. A short term drought may require that ranchers make management adjustments to get by. Net returns for that year may be impacted, but the ranch's fixed assets often remain viable.

A “multi-year drought” may involve 3-5 years or more of continued moisture shortage. Each year the impacts of the drought are multiplied by the shortage of resources and the management decisions made the previous year(s). As the drought continues, resource flexibility and alternatives shrink. Economic reserves often get depleted and stress levels increase during multi-year drought. (Source: Cotton, Monitoring Rangelands, a Practical Reference)

Drought extent and length throughout recent US history

Drought is a Normal Part of Climate

Many mistakenly consider drought a rare and random event; actually, drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate that has been impacting humans since the beginning of time. Learn more about climate.

Drought is ultimately a temporary condition. Drought differs from aridity, which is restricted to low rainfall regions and is a permanent feature of climate.

Drought occurs in virtually all climatic zones; however, drought characteristics vary significantly from one region to another

You Can Plan for Drought

Droughts are natural events that do have one advantage over other natural disasters -- they allow for planning and mitigation ahead of time that will lessen the impact when they do take place.

As an individual acknowledges their own susceptibility to drought, they need to consider how often droughts have happened in their region in the past as well as how likely droughts are to occur in the future.

What is Normal Precipitation?

Annual precipitation in Nebraska Panhandle region, 1980-2009

"Normal" precipitation does not equal "what you should expect." "Normal" precipitation to a meteorologist is an average of the precipitation values over a 30-year period. Precipitation may very often be either well above or well below the seasonal average, or "normal."

For example:

In the Nebraska Panhandle, for the month of April, the average or "normal" precipitation is 1.75 inches. However, as you can see in the graph, between 1980 and 2008, the Nebraska Panhandle received about 1.75 inches (+ or - .25 inches) of precipitation in April only five times!

Reference: "Understanding Weather Normals" by Jack Williams, USAToday.com; NDMC "Drought Indices"

What is my average precipitation and when does it occur?

How do you determine your farm or ranch’s susceptibility to drought?

You’ll start by developing a good understanding of historical precipitation in your area. Historical drought information for a particular region can be used to determine overall risk to drought as well as frequency and severity of drought for individual locations.

By monitoring conditions in your area, you can have an idea of how current precipitation and temperature values compare to long-term averages over various time frames.

Find average precipitation, when precipitation typically occurs, and average temperatures in your area - https://hprcc.unl.edu/datasets.php?set=CountyData.

View sample graphs here.

According to a study by Smart et al. (Historical Weather Patterns: a Guide for Drought Planning. Rangelands. 2005), the amount of spring precipitation during April, May, and June is a good indicator of the current year’s forage production on ranches in the northern mixed-grass prairie of the Great Plains. Since more than 90% of the total annual forage is produced by July 1, rainfall received after this time will not greatly benefit grass production. Therefore, understanding the historical occurrence of drought during April-June can be very important for ranch planning in the northern Great Plains.

Precipitation Range

Discover the lowest precipitation by month on record for your area at https://hprcc.unl.edu/datasets.php?set=CountyData. Are there steps you could take to be prepared for receiving that level of precipitation again?

This information is valuable for designing your ranch operation to withstand such departures from the average. What changes would you have to make in your activities to survive a 50% reduction in annual precipitation? What about a 25% departure from average over a period of five years or longer?

Drought Frequency and Duration

The Drought Risk Atlas is useful for determining drought conditions for an area over time.

The user can find historical temperature and precipitation data, as well as drought severity indices, by station. Data is presented in numerical charts or graphs.

Use the Climate Data section of the Atlas and then select a station closest to your location. You can select a station by state, station name, or within a specified radius of a single point (users can click the map to select a point). Once a station has been selected a number of data types are available including precipitation, multiple drought indices, and drought duration, frequency and trends.

Additional Resources

NOAA Regional Climate Centers

Locate a Weather Observation Station Record

Find Your Climate Division

How can I monitor drought?

There is no single definition for drought. When a drought begins and ends is difficult to determine. Rainfall data alone won't tell you if you are in a drought, how severe your drought may be, or how long you have been in drought.

We can, however, identify various indicators of drought, such as rainfall, snowpack, streamflow, and more, and track these indicators to monitor drought.

Researchers have developed a number of tools to help define the onset, severity, and end of droughts. Drought indices take thousands of bits of data on rainfall, snowpack, streamflow, etc., analyze the data over various time frames, and turn the data into a comprehensible big picture.

A drought index value is typically a single number, which is interpreted on a scale of abnormally wet, average, and abnormally dry.

Learn More

What is the U.S. Drought Monitor

Current Conditions